2023-12-15, Analysis shows we'll pass 1.5c in months

Analysis Shows We'll Pass 1.5c in Months

(description:: Current El Nino almost certain to push Earth past the crucial 1.5°C warming threshold)

A new study by James Hansen and his colleagues at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies has found that global warming is accelerating at an alarming rate. The study, published in the journal _Environmental Research Letters_, shows that the Earth's energy imbalance, the main driver of warming, has doubled in the past decade. This is causing global temperatures to rise at a rate of nearly 0.5°C per decade, which is more than twice the rate observed from 1970 to 2010.

"The planet is heating up much faster than most people realize," said Hansen, the study's lead author. "We are on track to blow past the 1.5°C warming limit set by the Paris Agreement, and the consequences could be catastrophic."

The Paris Agreement is an international treaty that aims to limit global warming to well below 2°C, preferably to 1.5°C, compared to pre-industrial levels. The 1.5°C limit is seen as a critical threshold beyond which the risks of climate weirding, such as extreme weather events, sea level rise, and mass extinctions, become much more severe.

The new study's findings are based on an analysis of global temperature data and Earth's energy imbalance. The energy imbalance is a measure of the difference between the amount of energy entering the Earth's system from the sun and the amount of energy leaving the system. When the Earth's energy imbalance is positive, it means that the planet is absorbing more energy than it is radiating, which causes it to warm.

The study found that the Earth's energy imbalance has increased from about 0.5 watts per square meter in the 1970s to about 1.0 watts per square meter in the 2010s. This increase is due to a combination of factors, including the burning of fossil fuels, deforestation, and changes in land use.

The increase in the Earth's energy imbalance is causing global temperatures to rise at an accelerating rate. The study found that the average global temperature in 2022 was 1.16°C higher than the pre-industrial average, and it is expected to reach 1.39°C by the end of 2023.

The study also found that the current El Nino event, which is a periodic warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean, is likely to push global temperatures above the 1.5°C limit in 2024. El Ninos can cause temporary spikes in global temperatures, but the underlying trend of warming is still upward.

"Even if the current El Nino fades away, the long-term trend is clear," said Hansen. "We are on track for a very hot future, and the only way to avoid the worst impacts of climate change is to take immediate action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions."

The new study is a stark warning about the dangers of climate change. It shows that we are on track to blow past the 1.5°C warming limit within months, and the consequences will be dire.