2026-03-04, 1948h, On Collapse as a Regime of Constraint

I was reviewing my research today and realized that collapse, itself, is underdeveloped as a concept, given how important collapse is to current living, and my life specifically. There are two ways I use it: the common way of referring to climate collapse, the less common way of referring to a certain part of governance in cybernetic postliberalism, and then, as a specific sort of relational phenomenon. Which begs the question, are those actually one phenomenon in different places? If I think about what is true across all of them, it's something about how constraint determines more than possibilities. Like, collapse is the regime where the constraints on what is possible are the primary driver of outcomes.

I think that's why I keep feeling frustrated with how collapse gets talked about, because most collapse discourse is still possibility-first. It's "what could we do," "what should we do," "what if we did X," like the relevant object is choice, when the relevant object is often that the option-space is already being carved down by constraints that aren't negotiable on the timescale people want.

And constraint here isn't just "limits exist." It's that limits start doing causal work. They start selecting outcomes.

In climate collapse, that looks like feedback loops and tipping points, sure, but the lived version is simpler: seasonality stops being reliable, infrastructure stops being repairable on schedule, and compound events become normal. The constraint field thickens. It becomes the environment you're inside, not the obstacle you route around.

In cybernetic postliberal governance, it's similar, just in social form: systems sense deviation and correct to remain viable, and the correction happens faster than deliberation. So what looks like political possibility is often already bounded by viability constraints, market constraints, logistics constraints, narrative constraints. The system doesn't "choose," it stabilizes.

And as a relational phenomenon, collapse is the moment where relation stops being possibility-generating and becomes maintenance. Like: instead of relations opening futures, relations become channels for constraint propagation. You're not "in connection," you're in load-bearing.

Which is where that internal/external intuition keeps showing up for me.

Because you can see collapse in nested systems when internal systems start limiting their own potentials to satisfy external constraints, but not in a coordinated way, more like: the external system preserves itself by exporting constraint-work inward.

But that's not sufficient as a definition, because domination can do that too. Extractivism does that too. Stable imperial arrangements do that too.

So maybe the discriminator is ratcheting.

Collapse is when stabilization consumes slack, and then consumes the capacities that would regenerate slack. The system keeps "holding together," but only by getting narrower. Each correction makes the next correction harder. The loop closes by shrinking.

And that's why "constraints determine more than possibilities" isn't just descriptive, it's diagnostic: once constraints are doing most of the determining, you can't argue your way back into an option-space that isn't materially supported.

So the question becomes less "what future do we want" and more "what constraints are now selecting outcomes," and then "who is being made to absorb those constraints," and then "what capacities are being destroyed in that absorption."

And I think that's what I'm actually trying to name with collapse, across those three domains: the regime where the price of coherence is paid in advance, by burning the substrate.